Spain on the Brink of 50 Million: Migration Averts Demographic Winter

Spain on the Brink of 50 Million: Migration Averts Demographic Winter

Madrid, November 17, 2025 — Spain is setting demographic records: as of October 1, 49.4 million people live here — the highest since 1971. Yet this joy is shadowed by declining birth rates. According to INE data, population growth (+105,488 in the quarter, +474,454 annually) is driven entirely by migration. Will Spain soon reach 50 million? Yes — but with an asterisk.

Migrants from Latin America are reshaping Spain. Photo: Reuters/INE

Migration on the Rise: Colombia and Morocco Lead

In the third quarter, 32,100 Colombians, 24,500 returning Spaniards, and 23,400 Moroccans arrived. The number of foreigners reached 7.1 million (+78,937). Those born abroad now total 9.8 million, offsetting a loss of 9,901 native-born residents.

Top annual gains: Colombia (+43,400), Venezuela (+30,500), Morocco (+27,700). These newcomers are not just workers — they bring families, accounting for 75% of population growth.

Leading Regions: Where Are Newcomers Going?

Growth occurred across all autonomous communities, with these top performers in Q3:

• Valencian Community: +0.40% (+21,708 people), reaching 5.49 million.
• Aragon: +0.36%, a magnet for families.
• Castilla–La Mancha: +0.34%, reviving rural areas.

Others: Catalonia and Navarre (+0.32%), Asturias and La Rioja (+0.30%). Madrid lags (+0.09%), Andalusia +0.06%. Ceuta and Melilla also show growth.

Birth Rates Decline: Crisis Deepens

Meanwhile, the number of native-born Spaniards continues to fall. 2025 trend: just 1.12 children per woman — a 25% drop over ten years. In 2024, 318,115 babies were born (-3% from 2023). Immigrants have higher fertility, but fewer native births mean the population pyramid is inverting.

Number of households: 19.7 million (+55,109 in the quarter).

What’s Next for Spain: Boom or Challenge?

Migration saves the economy (pensions, labor force) but strains housing and public services. By 2030, Spain may exceed 50 million — yet without reforms (childcare, family benefits), birth rates won’t recover. The government promises to simplify visas for skilled workers.

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Sources: INE (November 2025), El Mundo, Expansión, Infobae.