Arctic Vortex Approaches: Rare Deep Cold Wave Expected in Spain, February 2026

Arctic Vortex Approaches: Rare Deep Cold Wave Expected in Spain, February 2026

The 2025–2026 winter has already revealed its intensity: powerful storms, flooding, and snowfall in January affected even southern Europe. Now meteorologists are increasingly warning of a new threat — a potential southward surge of Arctic air across the continent in late February.

What’s happening to the polar vortex?

The polar vortex is a massive “cauldron” of frigid air and strong winds over the North Pole. When stable, it confines cold air to the far north. This season, however, the vortex has repeatedly weakened — even splitting — especially following the sudden stratospheric warming event in January. Such disruptions allow Arctic air to spill far south via undulations in the jet stream.

According to the latest model forecasts (ECMWF, GFS) and data from Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), issued early February 2026, the most likely scenario unfolds in late February:

Increased precipitation across northern, western, and mountainous regions of Spain;
Significant cooling expected (particularly after 10–15 February);
A rare, genuine cold wave for Spain — with widespread frosts even in lowland areas.

What to expect across Spain’s regions?

Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, Basque Country: Heaviest rain and gales; wet snow possible at sea level. Daytime highs may drop to +5…+9 °C.
Pyrenees and northern Castilla y León: Heavy snowfall; mountain passes may close. Nighttime lows down to −5…−10 °C in high elevations.
Madrid and the central plateau: After an unusually mild early February, temperatures may plummet sharply — daytime highs falling to +4…+10 °C, with overnight frosts.
Andalusia, Valencia, Murcia: Least likely to experience severe cold, but daytime highs could dip to +8…+14 °C amid strong easterly (Levante) winds and rain. Snow limited to Sierra Nevada.
Balearic and Canary Islands: The Canaries will remain comfortable (+18…+22 °C), though with strong winds and high seas. The Balearics face cooling to +10…+14 °C and heavy showers.

Will this be Spain’s “winter of the century”?

No. For Spain, a true cold wave typically means temperatures 4–8 °C below average for 5–10 days, widespread overnight frosts across the centre and north, and snow below 500–800 m elevation. Similar events last occurred in January 2021 and March 2018. Still, even moderate cold combined with intense precipitation can cause serious impacts: black ice, power outages, hazardous road conditions, and flash floods.

What to do now?

Check your heating systems and stock up on warm clothing — February still holds surprises.
Monitor official AEMET weather warnings (red/orange alerts were already issued in January due to wind and rain).
Drivers: Winter tyres are mandatory in mountainous and northern regions through month-end.
Coastal residents: Prepare for storm surges and gale-force winds.

Winter isn’t over yet — but spring is just around the corner. Keep an eye on updated ECMWF and AEMET forecasts: the next 7–10 days will clarify how intensely and deeply this cold air will penetrate southern Europe.